Unofficial Weather Forecast from "The Doc":
Latest forecast guidance continues to indicate that a major winter storm will affect Arizona tonight through Saturday.
RAIN: During the late evening tonight, expect periods of light rain possibly mixed with wet snow, becoming heavier and changing to all rain by sunrise Thursday morning as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Rain will be heavy at times throughout the day on Thursday and early Friday, especially between Thursday at noon and early Friday morning. Some embedded thunderstorms will also be possible, especially late on Thursday. Forecast models indicate 3 – 6” of additional rainfall by Friday morning across Yavapai County on already saturated soils. The wettest areas will be wind exposed regions on south-facing mountain slopes. Some snow melt will also occur on Thursday and Thursday night as rain will fall at elevations below 7,500’ where snow is already on the ground. Hydrology models are indicating that local washes and creeks will rise to near flood stage and may overrun their banks. Thus, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for many areas around the state.
WIND: South-southwesterly wind will increase now through Thursday night, with sustained winds ranging from 15 – 25 mph this evening, increasing to 25 – 35 mph overnight and into the morning hours on Thursday, and strengthening to sustained speeds of 34 – 45 mph in the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday, with very strong wind gusts up to 70 mph possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Wind gusts will be most intense near isolated convective showers or thunderstorms that could mix down some cores of stronger wind. The wind will gradually taper off and turn more southwesterly or westerly Friday and into Saturday.
SNOW: The cold front associated with the storm will move across the Prescott area in the early morning on Friday. Thus, during the morning hours on Friday, snow levels will gradually fall below the 5,000’ level. Depending on how quickly the snow levels drop, snow accumulation is possible in the Prescott area during the day on Friday with snow accumulation of 3 – 6 inches and possibly an additional 1 – 3 inches of snow on Saturday.
-C. James
MetMail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week by the Department of Meteorology ( http://meteo.pr.erau.edu ) at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU). ERAU offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in applied meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
For more information on the degree program, refer to the following URL:
http://www.erau.edu/pr/degrees/b-appliedmeteorology.html
Official National Weather Service forecast:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz
No comments:
Post a Comment